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Module 05 · Macro Market Intelligence

5.2Inflation

What you will learn
  • ·What CPI and PPI measure
  • ·How inflation data links to policy expectations
  • ·How those expectations transmit to markets
Core content

CPI — Consumer Price Index.

PPI — Producer Price Index.

Inflation data can influence expectations for central-bank policy. Those expectations can influence bond yields, currencies and risk assets.

TLHQ insight

Markets trade the expectation, not the number.

Example

An inflation print above expectations may shift rate expectations, which can then move yields, the dollar and dollar-priced assets such as Gold.

Examples use historical or illustrative data only. They are not live market signals.

Apply it

Find the next scheduled CPI release for your instrument's base currency and note the expectation.

Knowledge check
Check 01 · choice

CPI measures:

Check 02 · choice

Inflation data influences markets primarily through:

Key takeaways
  • 01CPI and PPI measure different stages of price pressure.
  • 02Inflation data shifts policy expectations.
  • 03Expectations move yields, currencies and risk assets.
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Educational content only. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Trading involves risk of loss, results vary between individuals, and past performance does not indicate future results. Only capital you can afford to lose should be exposed to market risk.